After their second bye of the season last week, the Tar Heels return to action on Saturday as they kick off the defining stretch of the season with the first night game of the year as they host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Chapel Hill. The team needs to win just one of their final three games to become bowl eligible, but with three opponents who all sit with 5-4 records or worse, many are dreaming bigger. Here is a preview of the first of those three winnable games.
Team Breakdowns
Tar Heels
The Tar Heels are hoping to build on the progress they made in the two games following the first bye week. Offensively, it starts with Jacolby Criswell, who found a great rhythm in the last two games and did a much better job of protecting the football. If he can continue to be as efficient as he was against Virginia and Florida State, he should be able to help lead this offense up and down the field the way they did in those two contests. He will have plenty of help from running back Omarion Hampton, who is one of the nation’s leading rushers and is coming off a career performance in Tallahassee. He has run for at least 100 yards in every contest in which he has played all four quarters in and one would expect that streak to continue, especially if his offensive line can continue to block in front of him the way they’ve done in the last two contests. That unit has been sparked by the return of some key starters who were in and out of the lineup in the first half of the season and it has led to more success on the early downs. The offensive staff has also done a better job of playing to the offensive line’s strength in the past two weeks by leaning on the run game, something that needs to continue in these final three games of the year. The pass catchers are still the question mark with this offense, but the group has been progressing along with Criswell. J.J. Jones, Nate McCollum and Kobe Paysour have played their best games of the season, though, in recent weeks and John Copenhaver is finding some nice success in place of the injured Bryson Nesbit at tight end. The hope is that a more efficient Criswell and some questionable defenses on the schedule will allow this group to close the season strong.
Defensively, the question is can this unit continue the level of play that they displayed in the last two games against better offenses? With how well the defensive line has played in the last two games, there is reason to believe they will. Kaimon Rucker being fully healthy has been a game changer, as has the emergence of Beau Atkinson. The team has racked up 17.0 sacks and 48 total pressures in the last two games and that consistent pressure has really helped a secondary that still has its flaws. Big plays have continued to hurt this defensive backfield and limiting those will be important in the final three games of the season against more explosive offenses. Alijah Huzzie and Kaleb Cost got beat a few different times against Florida State and they along with Marcus Allen, who had a chance to get healthy during the bye, need to simply limit those explosive plays that have allowed better quarterbacks than they faced the last two weeks to move the ball on them. In the run game, the re-emergence of the interior defensive line on run downs has been massive. Jahvaree Ritzie has started to find his groove again and the rest of the rotation has been more productive, as well, in the last two games. With the help that they have been providing, things have been made easier on the linebacking duo of Power Echols and Amare Campbell. Both have done a much better job of filling the right gaps and tackling in the last two games and should be capable of doing that the rest of the season if the group in front of them continues to provide resistance.
The special teams unit is starting to trend in the wrong direction. The return and coverage units have been the strength of this area for the Tar Heels, while the kicking units have fallen off as the season has progressed. Tom Maginness continues to struggle mightily at punter, while Noah Burnette has missed four kicks already this season, including one in back-to-back games. If Burnette can get back on track, which is far from a given, it should be enough to prevent this unit from costing this team a game down the stretch.
Wake Forest
This year’s Demon Deacons squad is very similar to the ones the team has had the last few years, but without the extremely explosive offense they had the last few times the teams met. The Wake Forest offense isn’t bad by any stretch, but quarterback Hank Bachemeir has not been nearly as efficient as some of the quarterbacks of the past that had this offense near the top of the country in most major categories. Bachmeier has been much more productive from a passing yards standpoint as the season has progressed, but the turnovers have been an issue for him in the team’s losses. He has a productive running back to rely on in Demond Claiborne, who is top five in all of the major rushing and scrimmage categories in the ACC this season. The wide receiving corps is once amongst the best in the conference with four different receivers sitting with at least 300 receiving yards in the first nine games. The tight ends don’t provide much of a threat at all in the passing game and have had their issues blocking-wise, making them the biggest weakness of this offense. The offensive line has graded out rather well, especially in pass protection, but this is still a team that has allowed 29.0 sacks. Getting DeVonte Gordon back will help a little after Erik Russell allowed two sacks last week.
Defensively, the Demon Deacons are once again having some major issues. The defensive line was supposed to be the strength of this unit this season and while guys like Jasheen Davis and Kevin Pointer have been able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the unit as a whole has not been able to bring the quarterback often enough to prevent their porous secondary from being torn apart. The team is currently rotating three corners between the two outside corner spots following the injury to Jamare Glasker and while C’Darius Kelly showed some promise a week ago, Jaxon Hull and Zamari Stevenson have allowed a lot of catches and yards in a system that is focused on keeping everything in front of them. Glasker could return this week, but has had his issues as well, allowing the most receiving yards of anyone on the team this season. As much success as teams have had against those outside corners, they have found even more success in the middle of the field. Safeties Nick Anderson and Evan Slocum have had their issues, but both linebackers have been picked apart when they have dropped into coverage. In total, the team has six different players who have allowed at least 200 yards receiving and six who have allowed at least two touchdowns. They have been better in run defense, but they have had their issues tackling at times which could be something that the Tar Heels expose.
The Demon Deacons' special teams unit is a very solid one, led by punt return Taylor Morin, who has simply been outstanding. The kick return game is probably the weakest part of this unit, but it’s not like this is a major issue, especially with how devalued that job has become over the years. Kicker Matthew Denis has missed three field goals so far this year, but is still relatively reliable, while Ivan Mora is a nice weapon at punter.
Team Stats
Tar Heels
Off. PPG: 34.0 (26th)
Off. PYPG: 247.1 (47th)
Off. RYPG: 201.7 (21st)
Off. TYPG: 448.8 (20th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 43.2% (T-46th)
Off. 4th Down %: 44.4% (T-99th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 62.9% (T-64th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 49.0 (T-59th)
Sacks Allowed: 15.0 (T-52nd)
Def. PPG: 26.4 (79th)
Def. PYPG: 235.2 (94th)
Def. RYPG: 130.1 (47th)
Def. TYPG: 365.3 (66th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 33.3% (26th)
Def. 4th Down %: 58.3% (T-85th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 58.1% (T-61st)
Tackles for A Loss: 58.0 (T-45th)
Sacks: 32.0 (T-4th)
Interceptions: 6 (T-89th)
Turnover Margin: 0 (T-64th)
Penalties Per Game: 6.9 (T-95th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 58.3 (T-91st)
Wake Forest
Off. PPG: 28.1 (T-64th)
Off. PYPG: 259.4 (36th)
Off. RYPG: 138.7 (95th)
Off. TYPG: 398.1 (60th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 38.2% (85th)
Off. 4th Down %: 70.0% (T-14th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 55.3% (T-97th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 48.0 (T-54th)
Sacks Allowed: 29.0 (T-120th)
Def. PPG: 32.7 (114th)
Def. PYPG: 298.6 (132nd)
Def. RYPG: 147.8 (69th)
Def. TYPG: 446.3 (121st)
Def. 3rd Down %: 42.6% (98th)
Def. 4th Down %: 66.7% (T-108th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 62.9% (T-83rd)
Tackles for A Loss: 43.0 (T-105th)
Sacks: 13.0 (T-111th)
Interceptions: 9 (T-36th)
Turnover Margin: -3 (T-87th)
Penalties Per Game: 4.9 (T-19th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 45.4 (34th)
Keys to the Game
Play With a Purpose
Any time that the Tar Heels are a double-digit favorite under Mack Brown, there is concern about the type of effort that the team is going to bring to the table. This has the potential to be that type of game after the bye week with the Tar Heels feeling good off two straight wins and Wake Forest feeling desperate after losing last week. This team has brought the intensity to both of their games since they found out about the passing of their teammate Tylee Craft and they will need to bring that same energy to this game to make sure they do what they are supposed to.
Pressure Bachmeier
Getting pressure on the opposing quarterback has been the key to success for this Tar Heel defense in the last two games and it needs to be a focal point again this week. Bachmeier has been under pressure often this season, some of which he creates himself, and it has led to turnovers. With the issues that the secondary has had this season, getting pressure in the face of the quarterback will once again be important if this defense is going to get consistent stops against this offense.
Limit the Pressure on Criswell
The offensive line has done a much better job of protecting Criswell in the last couple of weeks and it has allowed him to be much more efficient, resulting in a smoother operation overall offensively. With how much this Demon Deacon secondary has struggled in pass coverage, keeping Criswell comfortable in the pocket could allow him to move the ball the way that they want to in this one.
Injury Report
Tar Heels
OUT- Jonathan Adorno (undisclosed), Darwin Barlow (lower body), Liam Boyd (lower body), Leroy Jackson (undisclosed), Max Johnson (leg), Bryson Nesbit (wrist), Julien Randolph (undisclosed)
Wake Forest
OUT- Capone Blue (undisclosed)
QUEST- Ty Clark III (undisclosed), Jamare Glasker (undisclosed), Aiden Hall (undisclosed), Walker Merrill (undisclosed)
PROB- DeVonte Gordon (undisclosed)
Projected Starting Lineup
Tar Heels
Offense
QB#12 Jacolby Criswell, Jr.
RB#28 Omarion Hampton, Jr.
WR-X# 5 J.J. Jones, Gr.
WR-SL# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.
WR-Z# 8 Kobe Paysour, Jr.
TE#81 John Copenhaver, Gr.
LT#79 Howard Sampson, So.
LG#68 Aidan Banfield, Fr.
C#63 Zach Greenberg, Gr.
RG#53 Willie Lampkin, Sr.
RT#78 Trevyon Green, So.
Defense
DE#10 Des Evans, Sr.
NT#98 Kevin Hester Jr., Gr.
DT# 5 Jahvaree Ritzie, Sr.
RUSH# 7 Kaimon Rucker, Sr.
WLB#23 Power Echols, Sr.
MLB#17 Amare Campbell, So.
CB#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.
BS# 1 Stick Lane, Gr.
FS# 2 Jakeen Harris, Gr.
CB#29 Marcus Allen, Jr.
STAR#21 Kaleb Cost, So.
Special Teams
PK#98 Noah Burnette, Sr.
P#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.
KOS#97 Lucas Osada, Fr.
LS#62 Spencer Triplett, Gr.
H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.
KR# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.
PR#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.
Wake Forest
Offense
QB# 9 Hank Bachmeier, Sr.
RB# 1 Demond Claiborne, Jr.
WR#18 Micah Mays, RFr.
WR# 5 Horatio Fields, So.
WR# 2 Taylor Morin, Sr.
TE#20 Cameron Hite, Sr.
LT#62 DeVonte Gordon, Sr.
LG#54 Matt Gulbin, Jr.
C#74 Luke Petitbon, Jr.
RG#70 Nick Sharpe, Jr.
RT#71 Keegan Trost, Jr.
Defense
DE#30 Jasheen Davis, Sr.
DT#91 Kevin Pointer, Sr.
DT#55 Bryce Ganious, Sr.
DE# 5 Kendron Wayman, Sr.
LB#24 Dylan Hazen, Jr.
LB#21 Branson Combs, Sr.
CB#25 Jamare Glasker, So.
S#45 Nick Anderson, Jr.
S# 7 Evan Slocum, Sr.
CB#12 Jaxon Hull, So.
NICKEL#13 Davaughn Patterson, RFr.
Special Teams
PK#99 Matthew Dennis, Jr.
P#36 Ivan Mora, Sr.
KOS#97 Caleb Carlson, So.
LS#32 Will Cobb, Jr.
H#36 Ivan Mora, Sr.
KR# 1 Demond Claiborne, Jr.
PR# 2 Taylor Morin, Sr.
Game Information
Kickoff Time: 8:00 PM ET
Weather: 47℉, 0% chance of rain, WNW at 0 mph
Betting Line: UNC -11.0
TV: ACC Network
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network
Podcast
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