The final week of the regular season is here, and tonight, the Tar Heels hit the road for the final time, as they travel to Virginia Tech, to take on the Hokies, who have underperformed this season. Carolina has won 5 straight games sits at 19-11 overall, and is 12-6 in the ACC, depending on how this week goes, Carolina can either be the #4 seed in the ACC Tournament or the #6 seed. The last time we saw the Tar Heels, they put six players in double figures scoring, in a blowout win over Miami, in the penultimate home game of the season. The final home game of the season is this Saturday, when UNC hosts Duke, in a game that could either make or break Carolina’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament.
It hasn’t been the type of season Virginia Tech had hoped for, as they enter tonight’s game just 13-16, and 8-10 in the ACC. Playing at home hasn’t been kind to them either, as they are just 8-8 in Cassell Coliseum, including a home loss to Jacksonville/ The Hokies only have one player currently averaging double figures scoring, Tobi Lawal, who averages 12.5 points, while shooting 56% from the field, and 39% from behind the arc. Lawal also leads Virginia Tech in rebounding and blocked shots as well. While they don’t have many double-digit scorers, they do have seven players who average over 6 points per game, on a team that averages just over 70 points per game. Mike Young is four years removed from winning the ACC Tournament, and with a disappointing season, you might believe that his job is on the line, but Jeff Goodman from the Field of 68, reported yesterday that Young is expected to return to Blacksburg, with a reinvigorated NIL commitment.
During Carolina’s five-game winning streak, they are averaging 90.8 points per game, executing at the most efficient level offensively, that they have all season long. The move to the bigger lineup has made Carolina more effective on the boards, creating second-chance scoring opportunities, that you’re used to seeing a Tar Heel team generate. The winning streak has propelled Carolina back into the NCAA Tournament discussion, with the team among the First Four Out according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, among other noted bracketologists. A win tonight won’t change their tournament standing, but a loss would put the team in an absolute must-win situation on Saturday against Duke, ahead of the ACC Tournament.
Tonight is the only regular season matchup between UNC and Virginia Tech, and Carolina needs to stay in the win column, to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Here;s what they need to do to earn their 20th win of the season:
Get Off to a Fast Start Defensively: In the win over Miami on Saturday, it took until the under-8 timeout of the first half, for Carolina to really impact the game defensively. At that point, they held a 31-27 lead, before turning it up defensively, to build a 46-31 halftime lead. With tonight’s game being on the road, and Virginia Tech having multiple different scorers, Carolina doesn’t need to let Virginia Tech get comfortable and confident offensively and turn this game into a shootout on the road. Expect Hubert Davis to deploy the full-court press to get Carolina into a rhythm on that end of the floor, and to get the at the pace they want it played at.
Special Teams: With this being a road game, you know that limiting turnovers, and making free throws are going to be a key part of tonight’s game. Carolina committed 12 turnovers in the win over Miami on Saturday, while going 16-24 from the foul line. That was good enough to win at home against a team with only 2 ACC wins this season. The Heels need to be cleaner in both departments tonight if they want to continue to not only beat opponents but be able to win comfortably.
Play Inside-Out: Carolina’s offense has hit a different gear in the winning streak, and a big reason is an inside scoring presence, that Ven-Allen Lubin has provided, along with a better commitment to get to the offensive glass and generate second-chance scoring opportunities. It all starts by putting the ball inside and attacking that way, as opposed to trying to play from the perimeter. UNC has been better at making sure the ball touches the paint, before trying to score from the outside, and it’s opening up driving lanes for the guards to attack off the dribble, or forcing the defense to chase and rotate, if the opponent decides to double-team the ball when it goes in the post. As long as Carolina stays committed to that style of basketball, they should continue to enjoy the same type of success that they’ve experienced over the last handful of games.
Series History:
The Heels are 73-17 all-time against Virginia Tech, with a respectable 20-7 mark since the Hokies joined the ACC. In Blacksburg, Carolina is 22-8, including being 9-5 in the current venue.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 39th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.2 (22nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (78th)
Virginia Tech - 146th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 108.4 (153rd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (163rd)
NET:
North Carolina - 43rd.
Virginia Tech - 155th.
TV Info:
Tonight’s game will tip at 7 PM on ESPNU.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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