After blowing out NC State earlier this week, Carolina remains at home later today, as they host Virginia, in the second game of a three-game, in five days stretch. The win over the Wolfpack improved Carolina’s record to 16-11 overall, and 9-6 in the ACC, and while they are still on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament, they are still in the conversation as long as they avoid a bad loss, like a loss to Virginia.
This season hasn't gone the way that they would’ve hoped for, but it was set up for disaster when Tony Bennett retired roughly three weeks before the season began. Ron Sanchez took over and has guided UVA to a modest 13-13 record, and just a 6-9 mark in conference play. The Cavaliers are the worst scoring team in the ACC, averaging just 64.5 points per game, as they only have two players that average double figures scoring, Isaac McKneely and Elijah Saunders. After losing their first five true road games, Virginia won their last three games away from home, although the competition left a lot to be desired, with the wins coming against Miami, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech. Today will be a step up in competition for Virginia, even with Carolina experiencing a down season for the program’s standards.
In the last two games, Hubert Davis has started a bigger lineup, ditching the four-guard lineup, for a more traditional lineup, featuring Jae’Lyn Withers at the power forward position. On Wednesday, Drake Powell was reinserted into the starting lineup in favor of Seth Trimble, making Carolina even bigger and more athletic than they have been for the majority of the season. You have to hope that it’s not too late for this new lineup to turn the season around, but Hubert Davis should stay committed to it for the rest of the season.
Today Carolina will look to earn a third straight win, and a fourth win in five games, as they look to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive, all while chasing the all-important double bye in the ACC Tournament. Here’s how Carolina can stay on its upward trajectory as the season is quickly coming to a close:
Efficient Offense: Carolina’s offense functioned at an all-time high on Wednesday night, scoring 97 points, on 57% shooting from the field, and 40% from behind the arc. It followed a game where Carolina scored 88 points on the road at Syracuse, making the last two games the best offensive games for UNC against power conference competition this season. That will need to be the case once again today, against a team that will look to shorten the game, making every possession important. One thing Virginie does differently under Ron Sanchez is they switch every ball screen, which should open up mismatches if Carolina forces the issue. Regardless, Carolina’s shot selection needs to be as quality as it’s been all season long, and it needs to resemble the offense we’ve seen the last two games.
Limit Turnovers: Another big part of Carolina’s offense playing at a high level includes not turning the ball over like they have been known to do at different points this season. It all starts and ends with Elliot Cadeau, who has committed at least 3 turnovers, in 20 of the 27 games played so far this season. When Carolina has protected the basketball, the offense has been able to do whatever it wants, no matter the opponent, but when they turn it over, it’s when they aren’t capable of competing. With possessions expected to be limited today, that means that turnovers are even more important than they are in a normal game, which means Cadeau and the rest of the guards need to be smart with the basketball, and not give a struggling Virginia offense easy transition opportunities.
Defend the 3: The one thing Virginia’s offense does well, is shoot the three ball extremely well. As a team, UVA shoots 38% from behind the arc, and each of their top four scorers, all shoot at least 37% or better from behind the arc. Isaac McKneely is their best perimeter shooter, shooting 42% from deep, so Carolina has to make sure he doesn’t have a career day from the outside. With as much as they struggle to score the ball inside the arc, and inside the paint, they will look to exploit Carolina’s perimeter defense. This is where the bigger lineup becomes beneficial because UNC is better suited to contest shots from the outside, and not have bigger wings shoot over the smaller guards. Simply put, it’s going to take at least 8 threes for UVA to have a chance today in the Smith Center, so Carolina needs to be ready to go defensively and run them off the three-point line early and often.
Series History:
Carolina is 136-62 all-time against Virginia, including 68-9 in Chapel Hill, as they are 26-6 in the Smith Center. UNC has won four of the last six games, after losing the previous seven matchups, before Hubert Davis became the head coach in 2021-22.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 44th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.7 (57th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (64th)
Virginia - 102nd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.1 (104th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (127th)
NET:
North Carolina - 45th.
Virginia - 103rd.
TV Info:
Today’s game will tip at 4 PM, on ESPN2.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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