For the first time during conference play, the Tar Heels get to play back-to-back games at home, as they host the Stanford Cardinal later today, after hosting California earlier this week. Carolina extended their winning streak to four, after blowing out Cal, 79-53 on Wednesday night, to improve to 12-6 on the season, and 5-1 in ACC play. It was Carolina’s best defensive performance of the season, and one that highlighted the growth on that end of the floor, which has fueled the current winning streak, and turned the season around.
Unlike Cal, Stanford has adjusted better to ACC competition and will pose a bigger challenge for UNC today. The Cardinal are 11-6 on the season, and they are 3-3 in their new conference, with wins over California, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Away from Palo Alto, they are just 2-3, with only one win against a power conference school, but they have competed in road losses to Clemson, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest earlier this week. They are led by Maxime Raynaud, who is averaging a double-double, at 20.5 points, and 11.5 rebounds. He is one of three Cardinal players to average double figures scoring, followed by the Duke transfer Jaylen Blakes, and Oziyah Sellers respectively.
It doesn’t seem possible that in ACC play, Carolina is the best defensive team according to KenPom, or in opponents field goal percentage, or in opponents three point field goal percentage, but it’s true. The buy in, and the commitment on that end of the floor, have dramatically changed the season, just as much as the emergence of Ian Jackson as Carolina’s best player.
Carolina’s frontcourt has been improving in the winning streak, with Jalen Washington putting together a double-double against NC State, and Ven-Allen Lubin grabbing rebounds like we expected him to, when he transferred in from Vanderbilt. Today will be a litmus test for them though, because they haven’t seen someone like Maxime Raynaud during the winning streak, and limiting his production will be the first of many tasks that Carolina has to complete to win today’s game.
Be Ready to Play: Hubert Davis cherishes the early afternoon ACC games at home in the Smith Center. Carolina hasn’t played a home ACC game since December, and that was when the vibes around the team, and the program weren’t where they are today. At 12-6, and 5-1 in the ACC, morale is high in the fan base, and there’s reason to believe this team is capable of living up to the preseason expectations, of a team that started the season inside the top 10. The crowd will be full, the energy will be plenty, and Carolina needs to feed off of that, and jump out to a fast start, and not let the Cardinal get settled into the game, and get confident they can win in the Dean Dome.
Limit Raynaud: It’s probably asking too much for Carolina to take away Raynaud, as they took away Andrej Stojakovic earlier this week, when they held the 20 point per game scorer, to just 6 points. Raynaud is the best big Carolina faced since they beat Tyler Bilodeau, and UCLA in the CBS Sports Classic. You don’t average a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double on accident in any power conference league, so Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin do have their work cut out for them. They need to stay out of foul trouble, so Hubert doesn;t have to rely on big minutes from Ty Claude, or James Brown. Raynaud is going to impact this game one way or another, but if Stanford is going to compete, or pull the upset, you’d rather it be because Blakes or Sellers have big games, as opposed to Raynaud playing the game of his life, in one of college basketball’s sacred venues.
Run Quality Offense: Carolina shot 57% in the first half on Wednesday night against Cal, on their way to the 79-53 win. Their shot selection was as good as it has been in any game during the current winning streak, and that needs to continue today. At this point, you expect Ian Jackson to score 20 points or more, and even with Jalen Washington improving, he needs to get help from his backcourt mates. Against Cal, it was Cadeau and Trimble who stepped up, as both reached double figures, but everyone knows this team needs RJ to return to his All-American form from last season. If they can generate the looks for him today, that he got the other night, you expect the #2 scorer in the program’s history to start knocking shots down sooner rather than later.
Series History:
Carolina is 13-0 all-time against Stanford, including being 3-0 in Chapel Hill, and 2-0 in the Smith Center. This is the first time they’ve played since the 2020 Maui Invitational, and the first time meeting in Chapel Hill since 2018, a 90-72 win for UNC.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 28th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.4 (34th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.8 (30th)
Stanford - 92nd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.4 (54th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (177th)
NET:
North Carolina - 34th.
Stanford - 85th.
TV Info:
Today’s game will tip at 2:15 on the CW Network.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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