The Tar Heels finally return to the Smith Center, after two games away from Chapel Hill, as they host SMU, in a very important game for both the ACC standings and their NCAA Tournament resume. UNC won over the weekend at Notre Dame, thanks to a four-point play from Elliot Cadeau with less than 5 seconds left, or else Carolina would be 8-7, and 1-2 in the league. At 9-6 and 2-1 in conference play, they are hoping that the win over Notre Dame is the first of many, with the schedule very favorable over the next month or so.
Just like they did in football, SMU has announced their arrival to the ACC in a big way, as they currently lead the conference in points per game, and rebounding, earning themselves an 11-3 record, including being 2-1 in ACC competition. Over the weekend, they were blown out by Duke, but that’s not something Carolina should be concerned about entering tonight’s matchup. Boopie Miller leads the team in scoring at over 15 points per game, on a team that scores over 85 points on a nightly basis. One of the reasons they score so many points is their ability to grab offensive rebounds, where they are 8th in the country, which creates plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities for them. We all know the lack of size that exists on this Tar Heel team, they’ll have their work cut out for them tonight trying to keep the Mustangs off the offensive glass.
After missing the last three games, Carolina will welcome back Seth Trimble, after recovering from an upper-body injury. It;’s unknown if Trimble will assume his spot in the starting lineup, forcing Hubert Davis to start four guards, or if he’ll use him off the bench, a role he excelled at last season. Nonetheless, his presence will be welcomed, as he gives Carolina another scoring presence (he’s currently averaging 14.8 points), but more importantly, he is the best on-ball defender on the team, and is the second leading rebounder, at nearly 5 rebounds per game.
Tonight isn’t a Quad 1 game, but it does qualify as a Quad 2 game, which Carolina doesn't currently have on the resume. For all the struggles in the first quadrant, (UNC is 2-6), if Carolina starts stacking wins in the second quad, it will make their NCAA Tournament resume more appealing to the committee, to go with the metrics, which suggest the Tar Heels are a tournament team. With so few of chances to add to the resume in ACC play, the Heels need to make the most of their opportunities. Here’s how they do that tonight:
Win the Race to 80: Carolina lost the race to 80 to Alabama and ultimately lost the game, but they also won the race to 80 against Florida and ultimately fell short in that game as well. These are the two highest-scoring teams in the conference, that want to play fast, which means points, and possessions will be abundant. Getting Trimble back helps Carolina because, in the two ACC games without him, they haven’t scored more than 74 points, which likely wouldn’t be enough to win tonight. The offense is learning how to play through Ian Jackson as opposed to RJ Davis, but regardless, it needs to be both efficient and explosive in a game that figures to be an old-fashioned shootout.
Defend Without Fouling: In the loss to Louisville, they put the Cardinals on the foul line 39 times, in the win over Notre Dame, they allowed the Irish to shoot 18 free throws in the second half alone, which isn’t sustainable tonight, or moving forward. SMU averages taking 25 foul shots per game, which ranks inside the top 20 nationally, so they’ll look to put pressure on the rim and draw plenty of contact. Sean May said last night when filling in for Hubert Davis on his radio show, that it starts with being ready to guard from the start of the possession, and not get caught leaning or reaching, which will limit the number of fouls the commit. Given how short Carolina’s bench is, they can’t play extended minutes without Davis, Jackson, or Trimble, so it’ll be important that they stay out of foul trouble individually as well. We’ll learn tonight if the foul issues were just the cause of a tight whistle on the road, or another problem for Hubert Davis and this staff to figure out.
Compete on the Glass: SMU is the best rebounding team in the ACC, averaging nearly 41 rebounds per game. Carolina has held up on the backboards so far, as they are 6th in the league, but tonight will be one of their toughest tests of the season. Like Florida, SMU crashes the offensive glass, as they rank inside the top 10 in that category alone, creating extra offensive possessions, for one of the most explosive offenses in college basketball. With how little of an offensive rebounding presence this UNC team has, the focus tonight needs to be to limit SMU’s offensive rebounds, meaning they need to commit 5 players to the defensive boards, as opposed to having a player leak out, to create a transition opportunity. Asking Carolina to win the battle of the boards is asking too much of this team, but they have to compete in that area if they want any chance of winning.
Series History:
Carolina is 2-1 all-time against SMU, with this being the first time they’ve played since 1987, obviously making this the first game as conference opponents.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 35th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.6 (26th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.3 (56th)
SMU - 51st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.4 (23rd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (108th)
NET:
North Carolina - 42nd.
SMU - 43rd.
TV Info:
Tonight’s game will tip at 9 PM on the ACC Network.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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