The Tar Heel are back at home this weekend as they are set to host an extremely important matchup with the Pittsburgh Panthers. After back-to-back gut-punching losses, the team desperately needs a win to keep this season from slipping away and considering the program has never lost to Pittsburgh in Chapel Hill, this might be the perfect recipe to get that victory. Here’s everything that you need to know about Saturday’s crucial game.
Team Breakdowns
Tar Heels
The Tar Heels need to respond to Duke dominating them in all areas of the game in the second half last weekend. Offensively, it all starts with this offensive line which has started to trend in the wrong direction since the returns of Austin Blaske and Aidan Banfield. The group has had its ups and downs in pass protection, but the bigger concern this past week was how bad they were in run blocking in the second half. They will have to be much better this week at finding holes for star running back Omarion Hampton and the other backs in the room that has been carrying this offense. Jacoby Criswell has given the offense some life after the other two starting quarterbacks couldn’t, but he has missed some throws that he’ll need to hit moving forward to help this offense become more consistent. Criswell has done a great job of elevating what was a struggling wide receiving corps, headlined by back-to-back strong performances from J.J. Jones and Kobe Paysour. Both guys should continue to see significant reps, while Gavin Blackwell and Alex Taylor battle at the spot opposite of Jones until Christian Hamilton can return. Criswell has also done a nice job of using his tight ends with both Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver producing some big games since he entered the game against NC Central.
Defensively, the Tar Heels showed some fight early last week but were overpowered in the run game when it mattered the most. The defensive line could get a massive boost this weekend with the return of Kaimon Rucker who was a big part of why the team was able to defend the run on the edges against Minnesota. Even if he does return, the guys in the middle who have made strides this season like Travis Shaw and Kevin Hester Jr. need to get push late in games, something they couldn’t do last week. This defensive front also has to do a better job of creating pressure in non-blitz situations because things have been way too easy on opposing quarterbacks the last few weeks. At linebacker, Amare Campbell has taken over communication on play calls and did a solid job last week which pairs nicely with how he has been playing so far this season. Power Echols looked great in coverage this past week but has to clean up some of the missed tackles that have plagued him early this year. The biggest issue with this side of the ball still remains the secondary. While this might have been the best game from this group as a whole in pass coverage, they were a big part of the reason why the team struggled to stop the run against Duke. Stick Lane continues to struggle with missed tackles (already has 11 this season) and Jakeen Harris hasn’t faired much better (7). That doesn’t even factor in the issues they have had in coverage which resemble a lot of what we have seen from this group the last few years. We need to see the rotation that was promised at safety with Will Hardy and DeAndre Boykins playing more snaps starting this weekend. Alijah Huzzie recovered nicely from a rough outing against James Madison and Marcus Allen has been solid since getting beat on some deep patterns earlier in the season. The issue remains Kaleb Cost, who has allowed the third-most receiving yards of anyone in the country this season.
Special teams has once again turned into a bit of a problem for the Tar Heels, mainly in the punting game. The team has allowed a punt to be blocked in back-to-back weeks for the second consecutive season and Tom Maginness has not exactly been great outside of those blocks. The team lost kickoff specialist Liam Boyd for the season a couple of weeks ago, meaning that true freshman Lucas Osada will have to handle those duties the rest of the season. Outside of that, the unit has been pretty solid. Noah Burnette remains as reliable as anyone in the country and the return games are in good hands.
Pittsburgh
The Panthers roll into Chapel Hill 4-0 and fresh off a bye week. New offensive coordinator Kade Bell has jumpstarted an offense that was one of the worst in the conference a year ago and has them amongst the best in the nation. It all starts with quarterback Eli Holstein, who has been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football this season. He has thrown for 1,186 yards and 12 touchdowns and ran for 189 yards and added two more touchdowns in the first four games. He’ll provide a stiff test for a Tar Heel secondary that has really struggled at times in the first five games. The Tar Heel run defense will also be heavily tested by what will now be a two-headed rushing attack. Desmond Reid is a dynamic weapon that leads the conference in scrimmage yards per game so far this season and the team will also have Rodney Hammond Jr. back after a battle for eligibility with the NCAA. At wide receiver, the team has four receivers that have over 170 yards and at least one touchdown so far this year, led by big-play threat Konata Mumpfield. Tight end Gavin Bartholomew was an issue for the Tar Heels last year and is off to another good start this season. The offensive line has been all over the place. Right tackle Ryan Bear has only allowed one sack, but he has allowed a team high 16 quarterback pressures and both guard spots have been issues as well in pass protection. The group has also struggled across the board in run blocking with no starter grading out better than a 60.2 according to PFF.
Defensively, the Panthers are a solid, but susceptible unit as West Virginia showed. The linebackers are the clear strength of the unit, led by Kyle Louis, who has made a major impact in many different areas alongside Rasheem Biles. They have had some issues with missed tackles in the first four games of the season, but those don’t compare to some of the struggles that the rest of the defense has had. The edge rushers have been somewhat productive, headlined by what Nate Matlack, who already has 15 pressures so far this season, has done. The interior of the defensive line has struggled so far this year, something we are not used to seeing from this program. Both Nakhi Johnson and Nick James have struggled in run defense and haven’t been overly productive in pass rush situations either. The secondary, though, is the weakness of this defense again like it has often been under Pat Narduzzi. Cornerbacks Rashad Battle and Ryland Gandy have both given up some big plays down the field as has safety Donovan McMillon, who has also been a missed tackle machine.
The special teams group is in decent shape. Kicker Ben Sauls is off to a nice start and Desmond Reid is a threat if they chose to use him on punt returns. Punter Caleb Junko is struggling early on this season and both return units are shifting a lot of things around in hope of finding some stability as the year goes along.
Team Stats
Tar Heels
Off. PPG: 34.4 (37th)
Off. PYPG: 247.0 (T-49th)
Off. RYPG: 208.6 (25th)
Off. TYPG: 455.6 (32nd)
Off. 3rd Down %: 40.9% (62nd)
Off. 4th Down %: 40.0% (T-109th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 66.7% (T-46th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 30.0 (T-96th)
Sacks Allowed: 10.0 (T-88th)
Def. PPG: 27.6 (92nd)
Def. PYPG: 232.4 (94th)
Def. RYPG: 122.4 (54th)
Def. TYPG: 354.8 (73rd)
Def. 3rd Down %: 28.4% (14th)
Def. 4th Down %: 66.7% (T-102nd)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 68.6% (T-103rd)
Tackles for A Loss: 29.0 (T-47th)
Sacks: 15.0 (T-13th)
Interceptions: 1 (T-114th)
Fumble Recoveries: 4 (T-18th)
Turnover Margin: -3 (T-100th)
Penalties Per Game: 9.2 (128th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 74.8 (114th)
Pittsburgh
Off. PPG: 48.5 (5th)
Off. PYPG: 330.3 (7th)
Off. RYPG: 192.5 (39th)
Off. TYPG: 522.8 (6th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 44.2% (48th)
Off. 4th Down %: 66.7% (T-25th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 83.3% (T-5th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 25.0 (T-79th)
Sacks Allowed: 12.0 (T-101st)
Def. PPG: 25.5 (T-82nd)
Def. PYPG: 231.8 (93rd)
Def. RYPG: 110.3 (35th)
Def. TYPG: 342.0 (T-63rd)
Def. 3rd Down %: 31.5% (30th)
Def. 4th Down %: 77.8% (T-123rd)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 45.5% (T-30th)
Tackles for A Loss: 31.0 (T-34th)
Sacks: 11.0 (T-36th)
Interceptions: 5 (T-32nd)
Fumble Recoveries: 3 (T-32nd)
Turnover Margin: +5 (T-14th)
Penalties Per Game: 7.5 (T-100th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 71.8 (104th)
Keys to the Game
Hit Big Plays on Offense
The Pittsburgh defense has been susceptible to allowing big plays down the field and the Tar Heel have to take advantage of them. The team needs to be better on first and second down, but they must hit the big play opportunities that they are going to have if they want to win this game. Whoever wins the explosive play battle will win this one.
Create Turnovers
It’s hard to feel like this Tar Heel defense won’t give up yards to this vaunted Pittsburgh offense, but the one way they can balance it out with turnovers. The Tar Heels haven’t created a lot out of the great, but this game is the perfect time to start. If they can create a couple of turnovers in this game, that could be the difference between a win and a loss.
Stay Disciplined
Discipline issues have been a major factor for the Tar Heels in each of the last three games so it should be an important piece of the recipe again on Saturday. The team has to limit the costly penalties because if they do, it could be a huge advantage for them in this game.
Injury Report
Tar Heels
OUT- Liam Boyd (undisclosed), Christian Hamilton (lower body), Max Johnson (leg), Kaimon Rucker (lower body)
QUEST- Darwin Barlow (lower body), Kaimon Rucker (lower body)
Pittsburgh
OUT- Nate Temple (lower leg)
QUEST- Desmond Reid (undisclosed)
Projected Starting Lineup
Tar Heels
Offense
QB#12 Jacolby Criswell, Jr.
RB#28 Omarion Hampton, Jr.
WR-X# 5 J.J. Jones, Gr.
WR-SL# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.
WR-Z# 2 Gavin Blackwell, Jr.
TE#81 John Copenhaver, Gr.
LT#79 Howard Sampson, So.
LG#68 Aidan Banfield, Fr.
C#58 Austin Blaske, Gr.
RG#53 Willie Lampkin, Sr.
RT#78 Trevyon Green, So.
Defense
DE#10 Des Evans, Sr.
NT#98 Kevin Hester Jr., Gr.
DT# 5 Jahvaree Ritzie, Sr.
RUSH#40 Tyler Thompson, RFr.
WLB#23 Power Echols, Sr.
MLB#17 Amare Campbell, So.
CB#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.
BS# 1 Stick Lane, Gr.
FS# 2 Jakeen Harris, Gr.
CB#29 Marcus Allen, Jr.
STAR#21 Kaleb Cost, So.
Special Teams
PK#98 Noah Burnette, Sr.
P#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.
KOS#97 Lucas Osada, Fr.
LS#62 Spencer Triplett, Gr.
H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.
KR# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.
PR#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.
Pittsburgh
Offense
QB#10 Eli Holstein, RFr.
RB# 0 Desmond Reid, Jr.
WR# 2 Kenny Johnson, So.
WR# 5 Raphael Williams Jr., Jr.
WR# 9 Konata Mumpfield, Sr.
TE#86 Gavin Bartholomew, Sr.
LT#78 Branson Taylor, Sr.
LG#61 Ryan Jacoby, Sr.
C#56 Lyndon Cooper, Jr.
RG#55 BJ Williams, So.
RT#70 Ryan Baer, So.
Defense
DE# 2 Nate Matlack, Sr.
DT# 4 Nalkhi Johnson, Jr.
DT#11 Nick James, So.
DE#44 Jimmy Scott, So.
STAR# 9 Kyle Louis, So.
MIKE#30 Brandon George, Sr.
MONEY#31 Rasheem Biles, So.
SS# 3 Donovan McMillon, Sr.
FS# 7 Javon McIntyre, Jr.
CB#10 Ryland Gandy, So.
CB#15 Rashad Battle, Sr.
Special Teams
PK#90 Ben Sauls, Sr.
P#91 Caleb Junko, Jr.
KOS#90 Ben Sauls, Sr.
LS#47 Nilay Upadhyayula, Jr.
H#92 Cam Guess, Sr.
KR# 2 Kenny Johnson, So.
PR# 0 Desmond Reid, Jr.
Game Information
Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM ET
Weather: 75℉, 8% chance of rain
Betting Line: Pittsburgh -2.5
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network
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