Tomorrow afternoon, the Tar Heels will play their second straight road conference game, this time at Notre Dame, looking to bounce back from a road loss earlier this week at Louisville. Carolina rang in the new year on Wednesday, with an 83-70 loss to fall to 8-6 on the season and fell to 1-1 in league play. Wednesday wasn’t a must-win for Carolina, but it was a Quad 1 opportunity for the team, and with another loss, they are now just 2-6 in Quad 1 games, which isn’t an impressive number, when you consider the fact that Carolina is likely going to be on the NCAA Tournament bubble once again under Hubert Davis.
Notre Dame enters tomorrow’s game with just a 7-6 record, and they are also 1-1 in ACC play, but they are coming off a non-competitive defeat to Georgia Tech. The Fighting Irish have been without leading scorer Markus Burton for over a month, and he won’t be available to play in this game either. Without him, Tae Davis has emerged as their leading scorer, at over 16 points per game, he’s also their second leading rebounder at 5.7 rebounds per game. Another sign that the league is down is that Notre Dame lost at home earlier this season to Elon, the same Elon team that led UNC with under seven minutes back in the season opener, our first sign that this UNC team had its issues.
In Wednesday’s loss to Louisville, Carolina was once again without Seth Trimble, who has now missed back-to-back games with an upper-body injury. As of right now, it’s unknown if Trimble will be available to play, but he traveled to Louisville and was pictured on the team’ social media post when they loaded their plane to fly to South Bend. In his absence, Ian Jackson has continued to emerge, scoring over 20 points for the third game, and he’s averaging over 18 points per game, over the last 8 games. Regardless of Trimble’s status, Jackson should be in the starting lineup, and play over 30 minutes tomorrow, and in every game moving forward.
This game isn’t a Quad 1 game by any means, but it is a game that Carolina can’t afford to lose because this would qualify as an ugly loss, and there aren’t many quality wins to outweigh a defeat. Here's what to watch for tomorrow afternoon in a game that Carolina absolutely has to have, to keep itself afloat in the early going of ACC play:
Don’t Fall Behind Double Digits: In every game against power conference competition, Carolina has trailed by at least 8 points, and it’s the biggest reason why they have the record they have against quality competition. On Wednesday night, they fell behind by 11 points in the second half, and while they were able to tie the score, they never took the lead, in the 83-70 defeat. This is the biggest home game of the year so far for Notre Dame, and Micah Shrewsberry, a rising star in the coaching business, is still looking for his first signature win, even though Carolina isn’t ranked, a win over UNC would qualify as such. Students are back yet from winter break, so it won’t be as difficult of an atmosphere as it could be, but if Notre Dame were to jump on Carolina early, the belief in the building would rise and could inspire the lesser talented team to home upset. Simply put, if Carolina were to fall behind by double digits in this game, that might be all she wrote for the 2024-25 season.
Play Through Ian Jackson: Ian Jackson has emerged as the best offensive player for Hubert Davis, scoring at an efficient rate both from the field and from behind the three-point line. With that in mind, it is time that the offense run through him, instead of the veteran RJ Davis, who would benefit more from playing off of Jackson, as opposed to having to constantly create for himself. Jackson’s ability to pressure the rim, and isolate himself, opens the floor up for his teammates, making Carolina harder to guard in the halfcourt. That fundamental switch might be what ends saving the season, like when Brady Manek emerged as the stretch-4, in the run to the 2022 national championship game.
Limit Turnovers: Too many times Carolina has left possessions on the court, because of turnovers, and that was the case on Wednesday, as they turned it over 12 times, including multiple times in the final minutes. When they’ve fallen behind by double digits this season, it has had a lot to do with how frequently they give the ball away to the other team, which leads to either a dunk, a layup, or a transition three. As is always the case when winning on the road in any conference, Carolina, led by Ellio Cadeau, has to value the basketball, and limit the amount of empty possessions.
Series History:
Carolina is 30-9 all-time against the Fighting Irish, and are 6-4 on the road in Purcell Pavilion, a place they last won at back in 2023. Last year, UNC blew out Notre Dame in the final home game of Armando Bacot’s career, in what was the third straight win over the Irish, and the 12th win in the last 14 games.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 35th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.9 (26th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 (66th)
Notre Dame - 91st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 113.2 (61st) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (141st)
NET:
North Carolina - 46th.
Notre Dame - 103rd.
TV Info:
Tomorrow’s game will tip at 12 PM on CBS.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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