It’s game day for Carolina Basketball, as the Heels return home for the first time in 11 days, as they host the NC State Wolfpack later tonight in the Smith Center. Carolina is coming off a win at Syracuse over the weekend, as they got big contributions from Ian Jackson and Jae’Lyn Withers in the 88-82 win. The win improved UNC’s record to 15-11 overall, they are 8-6 in the ACC, and they are staying in the conversation for the NCAA Tournament, but can’t afford a loss to a team like NC State if they want to go dancing next month.
Just like Carolina, State won over the weekend, as they beat Boston College in a game that set offensive basketball back to the early 1960’s. The win snapped a nine-game losing streak for the Wolfpack, who are in danger of not qualifying for the ACC Tournament, one year after winning the event, on their way to the 2024 Final Four. State’s offensive has been the biggest issue for Kevin Keatts, as he only has two double-digit scorers, on a team that averages less than 70 points per game, which is second fewest in the ACC.
Today begins an important stretch for the Tar Heels, as they play three game in five days, and they are all games that Carolina will be favored to win. One thing Carolina has failed to so this season, is string together an extended period time of success, which has led to the record that they have, and why they are on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament. Two of the three games are at home, with Virginia set to visit Chapel Hill on Saturday, before a road trip to Florida State on Monday, for the final Saturday/Monday of the season. It may be hard to project forward with this team, but if this team is going to do its part to make the NCAA Tournament, they should find themselves at 18-11, and 11-6 in the ACC on Monday night, and riding a four-game win streak, with less than two weeks left in the regular season.
Carolina left Raleigh earlier this year with a dramatic win over the Wolfpack, as Jalen Washington won the game with a dunk on the offensive end and a block on the other end. It’s hard to say that either team has grown since the first matchup, because Jalen Washington is no longer starting, and neither is Ian Jackson, who led UNC in scoring back in January. Here’s how Carolina can earn another regular season sweep of their rival from Raleigh:
Build Off Saturday’s Performance: Carolina played arguably its best offensive game away from Chapel Hill last Saturday, scoring 88 points in the win at Syracuse, while shooting 49% from the field, and 46% from behind the arc. They were sparked by big performances by Ian Jackson, and Jae’Lyn Withers, who combined to score 43 points. A big change in Carolina’s efficient performance was that they moved RJ Davis to the on-ball point guard, and he responded with a 16-point, 6 assists, one turnover performance. Carolina’s offense has been hit or miss this year, in terms of explosiveness and efficiency, but considering that’s the strength of the team, it needs to function at a high level the rest of the way, for them to win as many games down the stretch.
Limit Hill & Taylor: NC State only has two players that are currently averaging double-figure scoring, Jayden Taylor and Marcus Hill, and if Carolina can limit the damage those guys do, it’s hard to envision State making enough shots to win the game. This will be Dontrez Styles’s first game back in Chapel Hill since he transferred out of the program two years ago, first playing at Georgetown, before landing at NC State last off-season. You know he will be fired up to play well tonight, so Carolina needs to be mindful of him, but the simple truth is that this team struggles to score the basketball, and that should be a reflection on the floor later tonight.
Do the Little Things: In the win over Syracuse, Carolina did a good job competing on the glass, diving on the floor for loose balls, they limited turnovers, etc. That needs to be the recipe tonight as well to avoid the upset tonight. If Carolina can limit the turnovers, not leave points at the foul line, and make the sacrifices that they made against Syracuse, it’ll go a long way to them earning the win tonight, and keeping himself afloat for the NCAA Tournament.
Series History:
Carolina is 167-81 all-time against NC State, and they are 82-23 in Chapel Hill. In the Smith Center, Carolina is 31-7 in the Smith Center, and has won the last six games in the Dean Dome. In the last 46 games against the Pack, Carolina is 39-7. The 167 wins against NC State are the most against a single opponent in program history.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 47th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.0 (40th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (64th)
NC State - 112th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 108.6 (152nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (103rd)
NET:
North Carolina - 50th.
NC State - 126th.
TV Info:
Tonight’s game will air at 7 PM on ESPN.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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