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Writer's pictureAnthony Pagnotta

Heel Tough Blog: NC State Preview

Chris Seward- AP Photos

The Tar Heels close out the Mack Brown 2.0 era on Saturday as they look to end a three-game losing streak to the rival NC State Wolfpack. Here is everything you need to know for Saturday’s matchup in Chapel Hill between the hated rivals.


Team Breakdowns

Tar Heels

The hope is that the Tar Heels will bring the energy they lacked the past three years to this game and help send Mack Brown into the sunset with a victory. To do that, the offense will have to look much better than it did a week ago up at Boston College. That starts with offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey running the ball the way he should have last week and early in the game the week before against Wake Forest. Omarion Hampton has been carrying this team the entire season and the Tar Heels will probably need him to do the same thing in this game for them to come away with a victory. This is a game where Hampton should touch the ball upwards of 35 times because it is the only path to success for this offense. The team needs Jacolby Criswell to bounce back from the worst performance of his young career where he threw for just 176 yards, threw three interceptions and took seven sacks. Recovering from that performance won’t be easy, though, as there is a chance that the team could be without leading receiver J.J. Jones after he suffered an undisclosed injury last week and had to be helped to the locker room. The team will also remain without Bryson Nesbit, who continues to recover from wrist surgery and Nate McCollum will be a game-time decision after missing last week. If Jones and McCollum can’t play, that would put added pressure on guys like John Copenhaver and Kobe Paysour to step up and play one of their best games of the season to carry this passing game. The offensive line is also looking to recover from a rough performance last week, especially in pass protection where they were credited with allowing five of the seven sacks. Willie Lampkin needs to return to the player that he was his first year and a half in Chapel Hill and the tackles have to dig deep and have their best performance of the season and give Criswell a chance.

Defensively, the team needs to rebound from a game where they were pushed around all night, especially in the run game. That starts up front with a group that had shown so much promise during the three-game winning streak, especially on the edges. Kaimon Rucker has been consistently getting pressure on the quarterback, but he and other guys such as Beau Atkinson and Des Evans need to finish those pressures with sacks in this game. On the interior, you need Travis Shaw, Jahvaree Ritzie and others to get off of blocks and make plays in the run game. The team as a whole needs to tackle better than they did a week ago and that starts with the linebacker duo of Power Echols and Amare Campbell, who have been much better in the second half of the season. The defensive backfield has been torn apart at times this season, but this is a game where guys like Alijah Huzzie and Kaleb Cost need to be at their best to take away the top receiving options for the Wolfpack. The safeties have had their issues, especially Jakeen Harris, and that’s why we need to see more of Will Hardy in this game.

The Tar Heel special teams has gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. Placekicker Noah Burnette missed a field goal in three straight games prior to last week and punter Tom Maginness has had issues throughout the season. The punt return game is in good hands thanks to Alijah Huzzie, but the kick return game is a mess, especially if the rumors of a portal entry from Chris Culliver are true.

NC State

The Wolfpack enter this game as one of the biggest disappointments in the country this season and need this win to make a bowl game. One of the biggest positives for the team amidst all of the struggles has been the emergence of C.J. Bailey. The Tar Heels will not only have to prepare for what he brings in the passing game, but also what he brings on the ground. The rushing game as a whole has been a bit of a mess all season long with Duke transfer Jordan Waters having not made the impact the team thought he would. The Tar Heels will have to be ready to see three different backs in this game, with Kendrick Raphael and Daylan Smothers getting their fair share of carries. Outside of athletic tight end Justin Joly, the pass catchers have struggled. Kevin Concepcion started the season with a gigantic performance against Western Carolina but has really struggled since then. The Tar Heels will still have to be aware of Noah Rogers and Wesley Grimes, two guys who haven’t been targeted nearly as often but have had productive moments. The offensive line is nowhere near the unit that it has been in years past, as they are top ten in the most tackles for loss allowed this season and all but one of their starting offensive linemen have allowed double-digit pressures.

Defensively, the team has not lived up to the lofty standards that have been set under coordinator Tony Gibson. The defensive line hasn’t been nearly as dominant as they been in years past, evidenced by edge rusher Davin Vann, who just hasn’t been able to make the impact that he did a year ago. He left last week’s game with Georgia Tech, but head coach Dave Doeren did say he is expecting him to play in this game. Outside of Vann, there hasn’t been anyone in that group, though, that has made a consistent impact, meaning the Tar Heels should have a better chance to win the battle in the trenches this year. The linebacking corps has had issues with missed tackles throughout the season, especially since the injury to Caden Fordham. In the secondary, Aydan White was looked at as one of the best corners in the country, but he has had a really rough season to go along with the team’s issues taking away the middle of the field.

The special teams unit is in solid shape. Caden Noonkester has been really solid as the team’s punter, but Kanoah Vinesett has struggled on field goals longer than 40 yards. Both return games are in good shape, especially the kick return game with the incredibly dangerous Donovan Kaufman.


Team Stats

Tar Heels

Off. PPG: 32.5 (T-35th)

Off. PYPG: 230.2 (63rd)

Off. RYPG: 189.2 (31st)

Off. TYPG: 419.4 (42nd)

Off. 3rd Down %: 41.2% (60th)

Off. 4th Down %: 47.8% (94th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 64.3% (T-57th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 68.0 (T-98th)

Sacks Allowed: 27.0 (T-96th)

Def. PPG: 27.5 (83rd)

Def. PYPG: 231.7 (91st)

Def. RYPG: 137.5 (52nd)

Def. TYPG: 369.3 (72nd)

Def. 3rd Down %: 35.6% (46th)

Def. 4th Down %: 50.0% (T-49th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 58.5% (T-58th)

Tackles for A Loss: 67.0 (T-47th)

Sacks: 35.0 (T-6th)

Interceptions: 8 (T-82nd)

Turnover Margin: 0 (T-69th)

Penalties Per Game: 7.3 (111th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 62.1 (T-105th)

NC State

Off. PPG: 28.6 (T-62nd)

Off. PYPG: 232.0 (61st)

Off. RYPG: 133.6 (94th)

Off. TYPG: 365.6 (89th)

Off. 3rd Down %: 38.1% (87th)

Off. 4th Down %: 56.3% (57th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 55.6% (99th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 80.0 (T-123rd)

Sacks Allowed: 22.0 (T-67th)

Def. PPG: 30.0 (103rd)

Def. PYPG: 238.0 (99th)

Def. RYPG: 138.4 (55th)

Def. TYPG: 376.4 (80th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 35.2% (T-43rd)

Def. 4th Down %: 50.0% (T-49th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 53.3% (T-29th)

Tackles for A Loss: 75.0 (T-26th)

Sacks: 21.0 (T-69th)

Interceptions: 8 (T-82nd)

Turnover Margin: -5 (T-99th)

Penalties Per Game: 5.1 (T-28th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 48.3 (T-50th)


Keys to the Game

Bring the Intensity and Toughness For Mack

The lack of intensity and toughness has been what has cost the Tar Heels in the last three years of this rivalry and on Saturday, this should be a non-negotiable. In Mack Brown’s final game as head coach, this team better come out motivated to play, especially in the trenches. If the team brings the right mindset to this game, they should come out victorious.

Run The Damn Ball

We said this last week, but Chip Lindsey had different plans leading to the most embarrassing offensive showing in the last seven years. That better have been a lesson to him that you need to lean on Omarion Hampton, one of the nation’s top running back and the main reason that you offense has been as successful as it has been.

Win the Turnover Battle

This season, one of the things that has been a major difference in wins and losses has been the turnovers. In wins, the team has a +7 turnover margin. In losses, the team has a -7 turnover margin. The Tar Heels have to take care of the football first and foremost to have a chance to win this game.


Injury Report

Tar Heels

OUT- Jonathan Adorno (undisclosed), Darwin Barlow (lower body), Liam Boyd (lower body), Leroy Jackson (undisclosed), Max Johnson (leg), Bryson Nesbit (wrist), Julien Randolph (undisclosed)

QUEST- Darwin Barlow (lower body), J.J. Jones (undisclosed), Nate McCollum (upper body)

NC State

OUT- Devan Boykin (knee), Ja’Had Carter (undisclosed), Caden Fordham (undisclosed), Grayson McCall (concussion)

PROB- Davin Vann (undisclosed)


Projected Starting Lineup

Tar Heels

Offense

QB#12 Jacolby Criswell, Jr.

RB#28 Omarion Hampton, Jr.

WR-X# 5 J.J. Jones, Gr.

WR-SL# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.

WR-Z# 8 Kobe Paysour, Jr.

TE#81 John Copenhaver, Gr.

LT#79 Howard Sampson, So.

LG#68 Aidan Banfield, Fr.

C#63 Zach Greenberg, Gr.

RG#53 Willie Lampkin, Sr.

RT#78 Trevyon Green, So.

Defense

DE#10 Des Evans, Sr.

NT#98 Kevin Hester Jr., Gr.

DT# 5 Jahvaree Ritzie, Sr.

RUSH# 7 Kaimon Rucker, Sr.

WLB#23 Power Echols, Sr.

MLB#17 Amare Campbell, So.

CB#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.

BS# 1 Stick Lane, Gr.

FS# 2 Jakeen Harris, Gr.

CB#29 Marcus Allen, Jr.

STAR#21 Kaleb Cost, So.

Special Teams

PK#98 Noah Burnette, Sr.

P#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KOS#97 Lucas Osada, Fr.

LS#62 Spencer Triplett, Gr.

H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KR# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.

PR#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.

NC State

Offense

QB#16 C.J. Bailey, Fr.

RB#20 Daylan Smothers, RFr.

WR-X# 5 Noah Rogers, RFr.

WR-Z# 4 Dacari Collins, Jr.

WR-SL#10 Kevin Concepcion, So.

TE#17 Justin Joly, Jr.

LT#74 Anthony Belton, Gr.

LG#75 Anthony Carter Jr., Gr.

C#56 Zeke Correll, Gr.

RG#52 Timothy McKay, Gr.

RT#65 Jacarrius Peak, So.

Defense

LDE# 1 Davin Vann, Gr.

NT#44 Brandon Cleveland, Jr.

RDE#13 Travali Price, Jr.

WLB# 0 Sean Brown, Jr.

MLB# 8 Devon Beatty, Gr.

SLB#34 Kamal Bonner, RFr.

CB# 2 Brandon Cisse, So.

FS# 5 Donovan Kaufman, Sr.

SS# 7 Bishop Fitzgerald, Sr.

CB# 3 Aydan White, Gr.

NB#15 Tamarcus Cooley, RFr.

Special Teams

PK#94 Kanoah Vinesett, So.

P#98 Caden Noonkester, Jr.

KOS#90 Colin Smith, Gr.

LS#95 Jake Mann, Jr.

H#98 Caden Noonkester, Jr.

KR# 5 Donovan Kaufman, Sr.

PR#21 Jalen Coit, Gr.


Game Information

Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM ET

Weather: 46℉, 0% chance of rain, W at 8 mph

Betting Line: UNC -3

TV: ACC Network

Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network


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