After earning a comfortable win at Florida State earlier this week, the Tar Heels return home to host Miami, to get the final week of the regular season underway. The win at Florida State earned Carolina a fourth straight win, improving UNC’s record to 18-11 overall, and 11-6 in the ACC, as they continue their push to make the NCAA Tournament. That game was the penultimate road game of the season, and this will be the penultimate home game of the season, with Carolina set to travel to Virginia Tech next week, while also hosting Duke in the regular season finale. Carolina will have to win both of those games if they want to go dancing next month, but none of that matters until the Miami game is first taken care of.
Miami hasn’t had the season they had hoped for since the season first began. At 6-22, and 2-15 in ACC play, this season has gone as sideways as any in recent memory for a conference power team, as they saw their legendary head coach retire during the season, citing exhaustion, and concerns around the state of the sport. Their top two scorers, Matthew Cleveland and Nijel Pack, have both missed time on the court this season, resulting in multiple blowout defeats, most recently on Monday, losing to Duke 97-60. The Hurricanes are 0-8 away from home this season, and four of the eight losses have been by double digits.
Not only is Carolina pushing to make the NCAA Tournament, but their recent winning streak has them in a position to earn the all-important double-bye for the ACC Tournament, amid recent losses for Wake Forest and SMU. Of course, for that to happen, Carolina would have to win out, but if they were to earn the double bye, making a run in Charlotte, to potentially solidify their position as a tournament team, but their seeding as well. All of that is still speculation, but given where Carolina was after the blowout loss at Clemson, it’s hard to believe they are even in position to achieve such things, as they are in the process of salvaging what once felt like a lost season.
It’s been a big week off the court, with Carolina officially hiring the program’s first GM, and beginning the process of putting together its front office. It’s time to turn attention back to the happenings on the court, with only two Saturdays left in the regular season. When the Tar Heels take the floor tomorrow, the calendar will have officially turned to March, and with Carolina appearing to be playing their best basketball of the season, it’s important they don’t lose all the momentum they have built over the last couple of weeks, and avoid what would be a disastrous loss.
Respect the Opponent: Just because Miami doesn’t have a good record, Carolina still has to take them seriously, and not overlook them, because a win in Chapel Hill would salvage their season. It’s unknown if Cleveland and Pack will be available for the Hurricanes, and if they aren’t, it’ll make it that much harder for them to compete, but this all starts with Carolina treating this game like they have the previous four, and play with the sense of emergency that has field their late season surge.
Continue to Build Offensively: In the four-game winning streak, UNC has averaged over 91 points per game. On the year, Miami has allowed over 80 points per game, so this should be a favorable matchup for Carolina to continue to execute at a high level on that end of the floor. Their perimeter shooting continues to be boosted by Jae’Lyn WIthers’s strong play, but it’s been backed up by a strong presence on the offensive glass. Miami has shown little resistance defensively all season long, giving up as many as 117 points in a game this year, so if Carolina brings the same focus they’ve brought in the previous four games, scoring early and often should be easy for UNC.
Little Things: To avoid the upset, Carolina has to do the little things very well, including limiting turnovers, not missing foul shots, while also defending without fouling, and guarding the three-point line. In games like these, the margins for error might be bigger, but to avoid getting upset, you have to make it to where the opponent has to play a near perfect game for that to be possible. If Carolina protects the basketball, doesn’t leave points at the line, and defends the way they are capable of, it’s hard to see a path for Miami being competitive tomorrow afternoon in the Smith Center, let alone win the game.
Series History:
Carolina is 28-109 all-time against Miami, and has won 7 of the last 9 matchups. In Chapel Hill, UNC is 13-5, with every game having been played in the Dean Dome.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 41st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.2 (22nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (77th)
Miami - 188th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.3 (67th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 116.4 (332nd)
NET:
North Carolina - 45th.
Miami - 222nd.
TV Info:
Saturday’s game will tip at 12 PM on ESPN.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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