The calendar has officially turned to 2025, and with that, the start of full-blown conference play is here, as starting tonight, Carolina will play 19 straight ACC games, before the ACC Tournament, meaning they could play as many as 24 straight ACC games or as few as 22 straight league contests. The last time we saw Carolina on the basketball court, they beat Campbell 97-81, behind big games from Ian Jackson, and RJ Davis, two guards who are learning how to complement each other in the backcourt.
Louisville enters today’s game with a record of 8-5, but like Carolina has lost to a number of ranked teams, including Tennesee, Duke, Ole Miss, and Kentucky, along with a loss to an Oklahoma team that has once again started the season strong out of the gate. Pat Kelce has been tasked with restoring the proud program back to glory, and he’s well on his way. His team is led by a number of transfers, including Terrence Edwards Jr, and Reyne Smith, who both average double figures scoring. Their leading scorer, Chucky Hepburn is also a transfer (Wisconsin), and he leads the Cardinals with 15.2 points per contest. They don’t shoot the ball well from the outside (30%), but they average taking over 32 threes per game, which ranks as the 5th most in college basketball. In addition to their high volume of perimeter shots taken, they also commit over 20 fouls per game, something Carolina needs to exploit early and often in today’s game.
It’s unknown if Seth Trimble will play tonight or not, after missing Sunday’s game with an upper-body injury. Let’s just hope he missed Sunday’s game more as a precaution, and not something Carolina will have to deal with moving forward.
It might only be January, but it’s never too early for “quad talk”, and tonight’s game currently stands as a Quad 1 opportunity for UNC, and a win would look nice to the other big wins they have against Dayton and UCLA. With as down as the ACC is this season, Carolina won’t have the fortune of earning Quad 1 wins as often as teams from the SEC or the Big 10 will have, which means they need to make the most of their opportunities when they come about, to ensure they are safe come Selection Sunday.
Carolina begins their ACC title defense in full earnest tonight, and like last year, they find themselves being the hunter, and not the hunted. At 8-5, and 1-0 in the league, nobody is expecting Carolina to emerge as ACC champions, but that was the case last year when they went 17-3 in conference play and won their first ACC title under Hubert Davis. A big reason why Carolina won the league a season ago was due to their ability to win road games, going 8-2 away from Chapel Hill. You play the difficult non-conference schedule you play to get you ready to win in tough environments come conference play. Let’s see if that pays off starting tonight for the Tar Heels.
Handle the Energy & Emotion: Pat Kelce has reengaged a fan base that was lost on Kenny Payne, and the KFC Yum! Center is no longer an easy place to walk into and win. With today being the second biggest home game of the season (behind Duke), combined with it being a holiday, expect there to be a lot of energy in the building around the opening tip. Carolina can’t get caught up in that, let it overwhelm them, and fall behind early once again.
Defend the 3: In the win over Cambell Sunday night, Carolina allowed the inferior CAA opponent to shoot 40% from deep, and 10 made triples. That can’t happen tonight, against a team that shoots it over 30 times from deep, if they are in the 40% range, that means they are getting close to 42-48 points from the outside. Playing with four guards more often than not should make it easier to close out on shooters, but it also adds to the pressing need to ensure they don’t allow offensive rebounds, because the best time to shoot a 3, is off an offensive rebound. If Hubert Daivs presses more than we’ve seen so far in the early portion of the season, it’ll also make them run their offense further away from the basket, with less time to get into their half-court sets, and generate the looks from the outside that they want, and rely on.
Live at the Foul Line: With a team that struggles to defend without fouling like Louisville, Carolina needs to be in attack mode for 40 minutes, pressuring the rim, and drawing fouls. Ian Jackson’s emergence into the starting lineup has opened up driving lanes for RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau, and both need to look to get to the basket tonight. There have been games where Carolina has overwhelmed its opponent at the foul line, and that needs to be the case tonight, scoring points with the clock stopped is a nice recipe for winning on the road.
Series History:
Carolina is 20-7 all-time against Louisville, including having won 5 straight. They are 4-5 on the road against the Cardinals, but 4-3 in their current home venue.
New Year’s Day:
This is just the 4th time ever that Carolina Basketball has played on New Year’s Day, with losses against Butler in 1929, and Maryland in 1943. They did beat Monmouth back in 2012.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 29th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.0 (17th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.4 (62nd)
Louisville - 58th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.3 (51st) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (80th)
NET:
North Carolina - 42nd
Louisville - 57th.
TV Info:
Today’s game will start at 6 PM on the ACC Network.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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