After routing Virginia on Saturday in the Smith Center, Carolina hits the road for a quick turnaround game at Florida State, looking for a fourth straight win. The Heels routed Virginia 81-66 in Chapel Hill on Saturday, behind big games from both Jae’Lyn Withers and Ian Jackson, as Carolina improved to 17-11 on the season, and 10-6 in the ACC, keeping them in the conversation to make the NCAA Tournament. Carolina hasn’t trailed in the last three games, something they haven’t done since the 2018-19 season, which is a drastic contrast from where Carolina was back in conference play earlier this year, when they struggled to earn wins, and often had to come from behind to do so.
Florida State has experienced an up-and-down season to this point, but a win over Carolina would salvage their 2024-25 season. The Noles enter tonight’s contest, with a 16-11 record, and they are 7-9 in the ACC, with a four-game losing streak sandwiched in between their conference results. Legendary head coach, Leonard Hamilton announced a few weeks ago that he will retire at the end of the season, and that came after former players sued him for lack of follow-through in regards to NIL commitments. As always, Florida State plays a number of different players, but they only have two players currently averaging double-figure scoring, led by Jamir Watkins, who averages over 18 points per game and should get All-ACC honors after the season. The Noles are typically a sound defensive team, and that is the case this season, as they average over 8 steals per game, and are among the better defensive teams in the conference per advanced metrics, giving them the feel of an old-school FSU team, bach when Leonard Hamilton was building them into a consistent ACC contender every year.
Carolina is just 4-6 away from home, a big reason why the season has gone the way that it has so far, with troubling losses at Pittsburgh and Wake Forest. Their last win on the road was at Syracuse, which started the current three-game winning streak. Tonight’s game serves as a Quad 2 game for Carolina, so another opportunity to add to their NCAA Tournament resume, as they are on the outside looking in for this year’s Big Dance.
It’s the final Saturday/Monday turnaround of the season, and winning the second leg of the turnaround is always harder. This is a great way to simulate how to prepare for March when you begin to play in your conference tournament, and hopefully the NCAA Tournament. Here’s how Carolina can stay hot, and earn a fourth straight win:
Contain Jamir Watkins: Jamir Watkins won’t get the recognition he deserves considering he’s playing on a middle-of-the-road team, but he’s one of the best players in the entire conference, averaging over 18 points per game. Live UVA, FSU only has two players that currently average double figures scoring, and while they are more balanced than the Cavaliers are, they still need Watkinso to play at a high level, to give them a chance. With Drake Powell in the starting lineup, expect him to draw the assignment, even though he’s a forward and not a guard. Carolina needs to limit the impact that Watkins has on this game, just like they did on Saturday, with Isaac McKneely.
Limit Turnovers & Make Foul Shots: One of the reasons that Carolina has struggled away from home, has been because of their inability to not protect the basketball, and get to the foul line, and make foul shots. In the road win over Syracuse, Carolina valued the basketball much better, put pressure on the rim, was able to draw fouls, and scored with the clock stopped. That needs to be the case once again, with RJ Davis primarily running the show, UNC’s offense has been more efficient, and with their ability to run off of makes or misses, they are putting the pressure on the rim, getting to the foul line more frequently. If Carolina can avoid the turnovers, which will be a challenge because Florida State averages over 8 steals per game, and takes advantage of an over-aggressive defense, it’ll help Carolina find a path to winning in the road.
Control the Glass: In the last two games, Carolina is plus-33 on the glass, outrebounding NC State 40-21, and Virginia 35-21, a clear benefit of the bigger lineup Hubert Davis has used since inserting Jae’Lyn Withers into the starting lineup. This has allowed Carolina to control the pace of the game, and dictate the way the game is going to be played. Florida State isn’t the best rebounding team, which means it’s okay to expect Carolina to control the glass once again. With Withers and Powell in the starting lineup, it looks like a vintage UNC rebounding team, especially on the offensive glass, where Carolina grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, and scored 17 second-chance points in the win over Virginia. It’s not a coincidence that once Carolina started to rebound the ball the way we’re used to, they not only start winning games but dominating games.
Series History:
Carolina is 53-16 all-time against Florida State, and they are 19-8 in the Tucker Center. The Heels have won in each of their last two trips to Tallahassee.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 44th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.0 (35th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (62nd)
Florida State - 85th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 109.3 (140th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (55th)
NET:
North Carolina - 45th.
Florida State - 88th.
TV Info:
Tonight’s game will tip at 7 PM on ESPN.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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