The Tar Heels will look to build off of their win last week at Virginia on Saturday as they take on Florida State. The team is hoping to take advantage of a Florida State team that is in the midst of a trainwreck season to get one step closer to a bowl game and give Mack Brown his first victory over his alma mater. Here’s everything you need to know about Saturday's game in Tallahassee.
Team Breakdowns
Tar Heels
Last week seemed like it might be the spark that this team needed to swing the momentum of this season back in the right direction. The offense is humming, led by quarterback Jacolby Criswell, who has found a great rhythm over the past couple of weeks. After picking up his first win last weekend, he will now look to continue his progress as he looks to establish the team as one of the nation’s best offenses down the stretch of the season. Running back Omarion Hampton has been very helpful in that quest, as he continues to put up 100 yards each week and has begun to find the endzone more consistently as the season has gone on. The wide receiving corps stepped up last week after Criswell lost his top target, tight end Bryson Nesbit, to injury. J.J. Jones has started to find more consistency in the past few weeks and looks capable of taking over that role as the top target. Meanwhile, Nate McCollum was a major contributor for the second time in the last three games against Virginia and needs to be that go-to option in the short passing game moving forward. Kobe Paysour has also been steadily becoming a reliable option as well after a slow start coming off breaking both feet a year ago. At tight end, John Copenhaver has taken over the role Nesbit left behind and Jake Johnson is also seeing more snaps. The offensive line is coming off one of their best performances of the season, especially in the run game. Winning on first and second down here will be key the rest of the season and that should be a little easier to do now that this unit is fully stocked after navigating injuries in the first half of the year. Willie Lampkin and Austin Blaske are anchoring the unit and true freshman Aidan Banfield’s return gives this group a very strong trio over the season. The tackle combo of Howard Sampson and Trevyon Green is still having some issues in pass protections and will have to continue to step up with some productive pass rushers on the docket the remainder of the season.
Geoff Collins's defense is hoping to build off their best performance of the season against a struggling Florida State offense. The defensive line was a dominant force against a struggling Virginia offensive line and Florida State’s offensive line has had its own issues for most of the season meaning there is an opportunity here. Kaimon Rucker being fully healthy was the spark that this group needed and Beau Atkinson may have finally broken out with his performance last season. The interior of this unit should be able to succeed as well if they bring the physicality. The linebacking corps was set up for success last week with how well the defensive line played, but they also did a much better job of fitting gaps in the run game, something they had really struggled to do since the James Madison game. The secondary wasn’t tested often last week, but you still have to like how they played with two starters on the shelf. Alijah Huzzie is having an outstanding season and Kaleb Cost has finally been able to provide some resistance after being torn apart in the first six games of the year. Cornerback Marcus Allen, who has struggled with consistency, and safety Jakeen Harris, who has really had issues tackling, missed last week forcing Ty Adams and Will Hardy to take their spots. With uncertainty around their statuses again this season, we could see them play a big role again on Saturday. Stick Lane will hold down the other safety spot despite a rough second season in Chapel Hill.
The Tar Heels boast a very solid special teams unit outside of the punting unit. The protection issues have dissipated in the past couple of weeks, but Tom Maginness continues to struggle mightily. Noah Burnette hasn’t been nearly as automatic as he was last season having missed three field goals so far, but he hasn’t missed any important attempts yet this season. The return games are in good shape thanks to some decent production from Nate McCollum at kick returner and an outstanding showing from Alijah Huzzie at punt returner.
Florida State
The Seminoles, who were the preseason favorites in the ACC, are in the midst of a disastrous season that has them sitting at 1-7. The offense has been one of the nation’s worst nearly the entire season after a failed attempt to restock after last year’s 13-1 season. Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei had major issues in the first five games of the season before he suffered a broken finger that might have him out for the remainder of the season. Since he went down, Brock Glenn has handled the majority of the snaps but hasn’t seen any more success than Uiagalelei. The same can be said for Luke Kromenhoek, the true freshman who the Tar Heel must be prepared to see in this one. The running game, which was such a strength last year, has been ineffective this year. Roydell Williams, the Alabama transfer, had some moments early in the year but is out for the season with an injury, leaving things in the hands of Lawrance Toafili and Kam Davis. At wide receiver, there is talent with guys like Ja’khi Douglas and Malik Benson, but there simply isn’t a good enough quarterback to get them the football consistently. The offensive line has not lived up to expectations by any means with five different offensive linemen having already allowed double-digit quarterback pressures so far this year. The tackles have had success in run blocking, but the interior guys have been dominated often, leading to very little success in the run game so far this year.
Defensively, the Seminoles felt confident that they did enough in the transfer portal defensively to be one of the best units in the country again this season, but that simply isn’t the case. The defensive line was expected to be a dominant force led by Patrick Payton. Payton has solid numbers but hasn’t wreaked the amount of havoc that he did a year ago. The same can be said of transfers Marvin Jones Jr. and Darrell Jackson Jr., who were raved about so much this offseason and haven’t been what they were expected to be. The linebacking corps has struggled, especially in run defense. The team lost DJ Lundy for the season a few weeks ago, leaving a group of underclassmen to have to fill the role for the remainder of the season. Omar Graham Jr., Cam Riley, Blake Nicholson and Justin Cryer will all see snaps in hopes of finding a way to slow down the run. The secondary has been the best unit on this defense, led by the success of corners Azareye’h Thomas and Fentrell Cypress II. The safety group has been successful in coverage but hasn’t done enough to help in the run game.
The Seminoles special teams unit might be the best in the entire country. Alex Mastromanno is second in the country in yards per punt, while kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is perfect on the limited kicks that he has attempted this season. Kick returner Samuel Singleton Jr. is one of the nation’s top kick returners and Lawayne McCoy has held on to punts well.
Team Stats
Tar Heels
Off. PPG: 33.9 (28th)
Off. PYPG: 251.6 (T-47th)
Off. RYPG: 190.8 (34th)
Off. TYPG: 442.4 (27th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 39.5% (72nd)
Off. 4th Down %: 43.8% (T-102nd)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 61.3% (T-70th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 44.0 (T-76th)
Sacks Allowed: 14.0 (T-58th)
Def. PPG: 28.4 (T-96th)
Def. PYPG: 244.8 (106th)
Def. RYPG: 141.1 (64th)
Def. TYPG: 385.9 (89th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 34.6% (40th)
Def. 4th Down %: 60.0% (T-93rd)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 58.1% (67th)
Tackles for A Loss: 48.0 (T-49th)
Sacks: 25.0 (T-11th)
Interceptions: 4 (T-97th)
Turnover Margin: -2 (T-86th)
Penalties Per Game: 7.4 (108th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 61.8 (96th)
Florida State
Off. PPG: 14.9 (T-132nd)
Off. PYPG: 192.1 (101st)
Off. RYPG: 80.4 (131st)
Off. TYPG: 272.5 (131st)
Off. 3rd Down %: 26.4% (132nd)
Off. 4th Down %: 63.0% (T-37th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 56.3% (T-93rd)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 53.0 (T-115th)
Sacks Allowed: 23.0 (T-112th)
Def. PPG: 26.4 (83rd)
Def. PYPG: 200.1 (41st)
Def. RYPG: 179.3 (106th)
Def. TYPG: 379.4 (81st)
Def. 3rd Down %: 43.2% (108th)
Def. 4th Down %: 66.7% (T-107th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 51.4% (T-27th)
Tackles for A Loss: 51.0 (T-33rd)
Sacks: 21.0 (T-24th)
Interceptions: 2 (T-125th)
Turnover Margin: -10 (T-127th)
Penalties Per Game: 6.9 (87th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 57.4 (81st)
Keys to the Game
Start Fast
The last time the two teams met, the Tar Heel did this, but simply weren’t able to put them away, allowing the Noles to come-from-behind and pull the upset. The Florida State team is a much different case, though, because of just how bad their offense has been. If the Tar Heels can jump out to a two possession lead early, that might be too much for this Noles team to overcome. The recipe should be to run the ball early and often against this struggling run defense and capitalize on the trips into the redzone. If the Tar Heel can do that on the first few possessions it might give them the type of lead they need to get this Noles squad to roll over.
Pressure the Quarterback
As we saw last week, pressure can change everything for an offense and that needs to be the plan going in. With a healthy Kaimon Rucker and Beau Atkinson possibly roaring to life, there is reason to think the front four will be able to get in the face of whichever quarterback is in the game. Geoff Collins also needs to remain aggressive with the blitzes that he throws at whoever is under center because this is a team that will cough the ball up and turnovers could be a determining factor if this one is close.
Limit the Mistakes
We saw mistakes early in the season allow NC Central to stick around and James Madison to blow this team out at home and the hope is that the team has learned from that. Penalties have been a big part of the issue at different times this season, as have turnovers, things that can shift momentum quickly. The Tar Heels are a deserved favorite heading into this game and if they play clean football, there should be enough here for them to emerge victorious.
Injury Report
Tar Heels
OUT- Jonathan Adorno (undisclosed), Liam Boyd (lower body), Leroy Jackason (undisclosed), Max Johnson (leg), Bryson Nesbit (wrist), Julien Randolph (undisclosed)
QUEST- Marcus Allen (lower body), Jakeen Harris (lower body)
Florida State
OUT- Destyn Hill (undisclosed), Richie Leonard IV (undisclosed), Jaylin Lucas (undisclosed), DJ Lundy (undisclosed), DJ Uiagalelei (thumb)
Projected Starting Lineup
Tar Heels
Offense
QB#12 Jacolby Criswell, Jr.
RB#28 Omarion Hampton, Jr.
WR-X# 5 J.J. Jones, Gr.
WR-SL# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.
WR-Z# 8 Kobe Paysour, Jr.
TE#81 John Copenhaver, Gr.
LT#79 Howard Sampson, So.
LG#68 Aidan Banfield, Fr.
C#63 Zach Greenberg, Gr.
RG#53 Willie Lampkin, Sr.
RT#78 Trevyon Green, So.
Defense
DE#10 Des Evans, Sr.
NT#98 Kevin Hester Jr., Gr.
DT# 5 Jahvaree Ritzie, Sr.
RUSH# 7 Kaimon Rucker, Sr.
WLB#23 Power Echols, Sr.
MLB#17 Amare Campbell, So.
CB#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.
BS# 1 Stick Lane, Gr.
FS# 2 Jakeen Harris, Gr.
CB#29 Marcus Allen, Jr.
STAR#21 Kaleb Cost, So.
Special Teams
PK#98 Noah Burnette, Sr.
P#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.
KOS#97 Lucas Osada, Fr.
LS#62 Spencer Triplett, Gr.
H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.
KR# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.
PR#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.
Florida State
Offense
QB#14 Brock Glenn, RFr.
RB# 3 Kam Davis, Fr.
RB# 9 Lawrance Toafili, Sr.
WR# 8 Hykeem Williams, So.
WR# 0 Ja’khi Douglas, Sr.
WR# 10 Malik Benson, Sr.
TE#84 Kyle Morlock, Sr.
LT#76 Darius Washington, Sr.
LG#64 Jacob Rizy, Sr.
C#53 Maurice Smith, Sr.
RG#54 Jaylen Early, So.
RT#63 Jeremiah Byers, Sr.
Defense
DE#11 Patrick Payton, Jr.
DT# 5 Joshua Farmer, Jr.
DT# 6 Darrell Jackson Jr., Jr.
DE# 7 Marvin Jones Jr., Jr.
LB#18 Cam Riley, Sr.
LB# 9 Omar Graham Jr., So.
CB#23 Fentrell Cypress II, Sr.
BUCK#24 K.J. Kirkland, RFr.
FS# 1 Shyheim Brown, Jr.
CB# 8 Azareye’h Thomas, Jr.
NICK# 3 Kevin Knowles Jr., Sr.
Special Teams
PK#88 Ryan Fitzgerlad, Sr.
P#29 Alex Mastromanno, Sr.
KOS#88 Ryan Fitzgerald, Sr.
LS#32 Mason Arnold, Jr.
H#29 Alex Mastromanno, Sr.
KR#28 Samuel Singleton Jr., RFr.
KR# 3 Kam Davis, Fr.
PR#15 Lawayne McCoy, Fr.
Game Information
Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM ET
Weather: 85℉, 0% chance of rain, ENE at 7 mph
Betting Line: UNC -2.5
TV: ACC Network
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network
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