Last night, Carolina’s six-game winning streak came to an end, at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils, who earned a regular season sweep of Carolina, with an 82-69 win last night in the Smith Center. The Tar Heels were more competitive this time around, as opposed to the first matchup back in Durham, but didn't have enough to take down a Duke team, that has emerged as arguably the best, most complete and dominant team in college basketball. Carolina trailed 43-42 at the half, erasing a 15-point deficit, once Cooper Flagg went to the bench with three first half fouls, with over five minutes left in the opening stanza. That late run carried over into the start of the second half, as Carolina started the second half on a 10-4 run, to take a 54-47 lead, that had the Dean Dome ready to explode. But as Duke has done plenty of times this season, they clamped down defensively, taking away RJ Davis’s ability to generate clean looks from the outside, forcing the ball to stay outside the paint. Long UNC misses led to run outs for Duke, who turned the 54-47 deficit, into a 75-64 lead, on the way to the 82-69 win.
In his final home game, RJ Davis looked like he was on his way to having one of those games that Tar Heel fans would talk about for many years to come, after scoring 15 points in the first half, and adding 5 quickly to start the second half. But he was subbed out to address an apparent cramping issue, and not only did it take Carolina out of rhythm, but Davis was never the same after being reinserted into the game later in the second half. Duke made an adjustment on how they defended RJ in the middle of the floor ball screen, hedging Flagg onto Davis, taking away his ability to come off the screen and take an uncontested three. Instead, Davis had to retreat, and spent too much time dribbling, not making Duke’s defense chase and rotate, as Carolina settled for far too many contested threes, and not only did Davis lose his touch, so did Ian Jackson, Jae’Lyn Withers, and others.
Duke’s size and length overwhelmed Carolina in the first game, when Carolina started four guards. That same lineup wasn’t featured last night, and hadn’t been featured during the winning streak, as Hubert Davis moved to a more traditional lineup, with Drake Powell playing the 3, Jae’Lyn Withers the 4, and Ven-Allen Lubin the 5. Duke’s size wasn’t the same factor it was in the first game, but they controlled the glass from the opening tip, building a 13-2 advantage, on their way to winning the battle of the boards, 36-21. Carolina won the battle on the offensive glass, 8-7, but their inability to get defensive rebounds, allowed Duke to control the pace of the game from start to finish.
This is the third straight season a sweep has occurred in the rivalry, with Duke having swept Carolina twice already under Jon Scheyer. The loss last night means Carolina still has work to do in the ACC Tournament if they want to make the NCAA Tournament, and drop Hubert Davis’s record to 4-5 against Duke. Here’s what to take away from a disappointing result last night in Chapel Hill:
Slow Start Defensively Proved Costly: Duke raced out to a 36-21 lead, and that was behind an offensive start you rarely see a road team get off to in this game. Duke started the game going 12/16, and was 5-6 from behind the arc in the early going as well. Carolina would eventually settle into the game on that end of the floor, using its full-court pressure to get some steals and deflections, but they still allowed Duke to shoot 56% from the field on the road, and that just can’t happen when you’re looking to upset the team that very well be #1 in the polls going into the ACC Tournament.
Stagnant Second Half Offense: After building a 54-47 lead, Carolina’s offense disappeared for about six minutes, and was never able to recover. With RJ Davis getting treated for cramps, the ball movement went away, and Carolina ended up playing isolation basketball with Ian Jackson and Drake Powell, who weren’t able to make perimeter shots, like they had during the winning streak. Hubert Davis did call a timeout and was active on the sidelines calling set plays, but Duke clamped down on the perimeter and took away driving lanes, making it almost impossible for UNC to get a quality shot without Davis on the floor. When he did return, Carolina was facing a deficit, and Davis had to start forcing the issue, as Duke took over the game defensively, on their way to victory.
Senior Night Disappointment: For the second time under Hubert Davis, Carolina has lost at home to Duke on Senior Night, after doing so back in 2023, in the final home of Leaky Black’s career. Armando Bacot was able to come back, and get the proper send off with a blowout win over Notre Dame last season, but RJ Davis won’t have that luxury. Davis was showered with praise when he was presented with his jersey during the pregame, and when he exited the game, and the floor for the final time. Carolina has had the luxury of spoiling Senior Nights for Duke (back when that was a thing in Durham), most notably in 2006, and in 2012, but the Blue Devils have countered, with recent wins in Chapel Hill on UNC’s Senior Night.
Bubble: With the loss, Carolina now has to win at least three games in the ACC Tournament, to feel good about their chances to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. UNC is the 5 seed, meaning they’ll start play on Wednesday, with a potential third contest with Duke on Friday night in the semifinals, and Carolina will more than likely have to get to Friday, and win, to make the tournament. Of course, if they win the ACC Tournament, they’ll earn the automatic bid, but winning four games in four days may be too much to ask of this year's team.
Up Next: Carolina will begin play in the ACC Tournament on Wednesday afternoon, when they’ll play either Pitt or Notre Dame at 2:30 PM.
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