 Tonight at 7 PM eastern, the greatest rivalry in sports renews itself, as North Carolina will play against Duke for the 265th time in the history of these two storied programs in the ACC tournament semifinals. Entering today Carolina has a 145-119 lead in the series, although many of those wins came in the early days of basketball. For Carolina, it’s a game that can lock the Heels into the tournament with a quad one victory. As of the writing of this article, Carolina is projected to be among the last four in the tournament, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. This is a revenge game for the Tar Heels as Duke swept the regular season series.
Already when you look at this game, there is a difference from the previous two games that the two teams have played this year, as ACC player of the year Cooper Flagg and key backup Maliq Brown are both unlikely to play for the Blue Devils due to injury. With that said, Duke is still a highly talented team. The Blue Devils average 83.3 ppg on 48.9 percent shooting from the floor. This includes shooting 38.1 percent from three, 11th in the country. Duke is also 6th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 61.4 ppg, they also are 35th in the country in opponents'
3pt field goal percentage. Duke is also one of the best teams in the country in rebounding margin, 7th in the country at plus 8.5.Â
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From Carolina’s perspective, this is a game that could help their case for the NCAA tournament substantially. They enter at 22-12, having won 7 of their past 8 games. Carolina sits at 36th in the net, ahead of teams such as Arkansas and Oklahoma, who are above them in the bracket according to Joe Lunardi. The Heels enter the game averaging 81.1 ppg on the season, shooting 47.6% from the field, 35.7% from the three-point line. Carolina is 41st in the country in fast break points with 13.09 ppg coming from the break. Defensively Carolina is 278th in ppg allowed with 75.5. That end of the floor will be critical to the Heels performance. Here are some keys to the Tar Heels picking up a victory tonight.
Perimeter Defense:
With Cooper Flagg likely to not play, stopping Kon Knueppel becomes the number one priority. That falls to Seth Trimble and Drake Powell, who will likely get the Knueppel assignment. Stopping Tyresse Proctor is also a priority, and this will fall to RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau. All in all, the guards must show up to play defensively, pressure the ball, and force turnovers on the perimeter.
Rebounding:
Last time these two teams played, Duke dominated the glass, winning the rebounding margin 39-26. With no Flagg, who led Duke in rebounds with 9 in that game, Carolina has no excuse to not compete on the glass. This is where Ven Allen-Lubin and Jay’len Withers must come to play today. They must make sure to put a body on the big men down low, especially Khaman Maluach, and they must be strong to secure those rebounds.
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Shooting
This goes without saying, Carolina must make shots. There cannot be a stretch like yesterday where Carolina goes 1-16 over a stretch. This is where Ian Jackson needs to show up. He hasn’t had a great first two games against Duke, scoring 8 points both times. This is his type of game, no one really is talking about him, he hasn’t had a great past couple games, and Duke’s main focus won’t be on stopping him. Aside from him, RJ Davis and Jay’len Withers will have to have good shooting nights for this to turn into a Carolina victory.
Series History:
Carolina is 145-119 all-time agaisnst Duke, even woth having been swept this season. Hubert Davis is 4-5 against his biggest rival, with two wins coming in 2021-22, and the other two last season, This is the first time they've met in the ACC Tournament since 2019, a UNC loss in Charlotte.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 35th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.9 (22nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.8 (58th)
Duke - 1st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 128.7 (2nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 89.9 (4th)
NET:
North Carolina - 35th.
Duke - 1st.
TV Info:
Carolina will face Duke tonight at 7 PM, on ESPN with a berth to the ACC tournament final on the line.
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