It’s the final weekend of the regular season, which means it’s time for North Carolina to renew its rivalry with Duke, this time in Chapel Hill, with ACC Tournament, and NCAA Tournament implications at stake for both programs. Carolina enters the game on a six-game winning streak, and is 20-11, and 13-6 in conference play, Even with that respectable record, Carolina finds itself on the outside looking in for NCAA Tournament consideration, and needs a win, like a win over Duke, ro secure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament later this month.
While Carolina enters on a heater, so does Duke, who hasn’t lost since the second Tuesday at Clemson, their lone loss of ACC play. Even though they enter with an 18-1 record in ACC play, the Blue Devils need a win over Carolina, to win the ACC regular season title outright, and be the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament next week. There’s a scenario that exists where if Duke loses, and Clemson and Louisville both win, Duke would be the #3 seed in Charlotte next week for the conference tournament. Cooper Flagg has emerged as the front runner to be the National Player of the Year, while getting consistent contributions from Kon Knueppel, Trese Proctor, and others.
It was just over a month ago, that Carolina made the 8 mile trip to Durham, and got blown 87-70 by Duke, in a game that wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate. UNC was down 42-13 in the first half, and was completely overwhelmed by the size and length of the Blue Devils. They did find some things that have shown up in the current six-game winning streak though, Drake Powell played at an extremely high level in the second half, and UNC utilized a 2-3 zone, to keep Duke out of the lane. Powell has started the last 5 games at the small forward position, helping Carolina defensively, and on the glass, all while hitting timely perimeter shots. Meanwhile, Carolina has that 2-3 zone that they’ve used during the winning streak as well, most notably against Florida State, which allowed them to take control of the game late in the first half.
It’s Senior Night in Chapel Hill, as Carolina will officially say goodbye to RJ Davis, Jae’Lyn Withers and Ty Claude, all of whom are playing in their final game at the Smith Center. Carolina is 2-1 on Senior Night under Hubert Davis, with the lone loss coming to Duke back in 2023.
When the two teams first met, it was evident that Carolina wasn’t confident that they could beat Duke, and that was a big reason why they ultimately got embarrassed in Cameron Indoor Stadium. There’s a different feeling around this team, entering tonight’s matchup. The players, including RJ Davis, who will play in his final game at the Smith Center, is cool, calm and collected. When Hubert Davis met with the media on Thursday, he was relaxed, and quite joyful with the reporters. That confidence will need to be on display tonight, because Carolina’s belief that they can win, needs to be what fuel’s their effort.
Punch First: The first game was effectively over at the first media timeout, and Duke never looked back. Tonight, Carolina needs to ride the energy and the emotion that will be in the building, and help them throw the first punch, and draw first blood. Just like UNC has been blowing opponents out, so has Duke, and they remember how easy it was to jump on Carolina back in Durham. Carolina can’t win the game in the first four minutes, but they can let Duke know that this game is going to be different than the first, meaning it’s going to be a typical game we see in this rivalry, and that it’s going to take a 40 minute effort to beat them.
Compete on the Glass: With the bigger lineup, featuring Drake Powell at the “3”, Jae’Lyn Withers at the “4”, with Ven-Alen Lubin anchoring the center spot, Carolina has been dominant on the glass, outrebounding opponents on a nightly basis, and usually by double digits. Duke is the biggest team in the country, and has the size that you typically see in the NBA, and not the college level. But that can’t overwhelm UNC like it did in the first matchup, Carolina has to be relentless on the boards, especially on the offensive glass, to generate as many scoring opportunities as possible. Carolina doesn’t necessarily have to win the rebounding battle to win the game, but it has to keep it competitive and give itself a chance.
Make Perimeter Shots: All of a sudden, Carolina has become the best three-point shooting team in the country, shooting nearly 50% from behind the arc during the six-game winning streak. In the last three games, Carolina has made double-digit threes, all while shooting over 50% from behind the arc. Better floor spacing has generated better looks from the outside, to go along with improved shot making from RJ Davis, and Ian Jackson. After those two carried the load for the first three months from the outside, Carolina is now getting contributions from Jae’Lyn Withers, Drake Powell, and even Seth Trimble from the outside. The diversity in perimeter shooting has made Carolina harder to guard, and has opened up driving lanes for everybody. Carolina more than likely needs to make at a minimum 8 triples tonight, to put themselves in position to win the game.
Series History:
The Heels led the all-time series, 145-118, with a 66-39 mark in Chapel Hill, but they are just 21-18 in the Smith Center. Hubert Davis is 4-4 against the Blue Devils, including a sweep of Duke just last season. Carolina is 10-20 against Duke teams that are ranked either No.1 or No. 2, and they enter tonight’s matchup as the second-ranked team in the country.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 37th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.8 (20th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (71st)
Duke - 1st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 129.1 (2nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 89.7 (4th)
NET:
North Carolina - 38th.
Duke - 1st.
TV Info:
Tonight’s game will tip at 6:30 PM on ESPN.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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