Heel Tough Blog: Duke Preview

University of North Carolina Athletics

It’s the first Saturday of February, and we’re at the halfway point of the ACC season, which means it’s time for the greatest rivalry in sports, Carolina-Duke to renew itself and write its latest chapter, and that’s exactly what will happen tonight in Cameron Indoor Stadium, 8 miles away from Chapel Hill. This matchup usually features two teams ranked inside the top 25, two teams battling for ACC supremacy, as well as two teams looking to establish themselves as national title contenders. While Duke has held up its end of the bargain, Carolina hasn’t. UNC enters tonight’s game with a modest 13-9 record, they are 6-4 in the ACC, and they find themselves squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Earlier this week, Carolina fell on the road at Pittsburgh, 73-65, as they only scored 4 points across the final 8 minutes of the game. That game qualified as a Quad 1 game, and the loss dropped Carolina to 1-8 in Quad 1 games this season. 

After a slow start to the season, Duke has found its stride over the last two months, having won 14 straight games, and establishing themselves as the team to beat in the ACC. The Blue Devils haven't lost since before Thanksgiving when they fell to Kansas on a neutral floor in Las Vegas. Their only other loss came to Kentucky, again on a neutral floor, back in the second week of the season. They of course are led by Cooper Flagg, the freshman from Maine, who has lived up to the hype from the moment he arrived on Campus. Flagg leads Duke in scoring, rebounding, assists, and blocks. Flagg gets help from fellow freshman Kon Knueppel who averages over 13 points per game, and from junior guard Tyrese Proctor, who averages over 10 points per contest. What separates this Duke team from the past, is how good they are defensively, where they only allow 59.6 points per game, and they rank third in defensive rating according to KenPom. 

When Hubert Davis met with the media on Thursday, it wasn’t clear if Jalen Washington would be able to play later tonight. Washington missed the Pitt game with a sprained knee, an injury he suffered in the win over Boston College last week. Every member of Duke’s starting 5 is at least 6-5. How Carolina handles the size and the length of the Blue Devils will go a long way to determining the outcome of the game. 

With a win tonight, RJ Davis would improve to 4-1 in Cameron Indoor Stadium and would tie with Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, and Bobby Frasor for the most wins at Duke by a Carolina player. Obviously Davis is a benefactor from the Covid year, but this would be a legacy-defining win for Davis, who hasn’t experienced the type of team success he had hoped for when returning for a fifth season. 

This isn’t where Carolina thought it would be when the season began, but the good thing is that this game offers you a chance to rewrite the story about this season. A win would put Carolina back in the projected NCAA Tournament field and would offer a chance for real momentum to be built down the stretch of conference play. Just two years ago, Carolina was in a similar position, and they shocked the world. Here’s how they do it again:

1. Wear Down Cooper Flagg: Flagg may lead Duke in almost every meaningful category, but they rely on him to do that, for them to be the team they’ve been so far this season. In the second half of their comeback win over NC State earlier this week, Flagg looked absolutely gassed, potentially showing signs of wearing down. This is Flagg’s introduction into the rivalry, so he doesn’t have experience handling the build-up and the anticipation, like many of Carolina’s guys have. Expect Seth Trimble to draw the initial assignment on Flagg, but Hubert Davis needs to throw multiple bodies at him, including Drake Powell, and potentially even Jae’Lyn Withers. This game goes a long way to determining the legacy you leave at either school, Carolina can’t allow Flagg to be the best player on the floor if they hope to win. 

2. Defend the 3: Duke may not shoot the ball well from the outside from a percentage standpoint, but they shoot a lot of them, and Carolina needs to be aware of that. The Blue Devils shoot over 28 threes per game while making nearly 10 per contest. With that being said, Carolina can’t allow them to get hot, because Duke’s shooters, led by Knueppel, are more than capable. 

3. Limit Turnovers: Live ball turnovers doomed Carolina in the loss to Pittsburgh earlier this week, as they committed 14 turnovers, and it led to 22 points. You can’t turn it over in this building, because the Cameron Crazies feed off of them, and if you allow Duke to get runout dunks or threes, that’s when the environment becomes too much to handle. Carolina has protected the ball well at home, and that needs to travel 8 miles down the road. 

Series History:

• Carolina is 145-117 all-time against the Blue Devils. In Durham, they are 51-56, and 40-47 in Cameron Indoor Stadium, but those 40 wins are the most by a visiting opponent. They are 3-1 in the last four games in Durham, and they have split the last 10 games. Hubert Daivs is 4-3 all-time against Duke, and is 2-1 on the road, with a win last season that clinched the outright ACC regular season title. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 39th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 115.8 (48th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 98.3 (47th) 

• Duke - 3rd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 123.2 (6th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 87.8 (3rd) 

NET:

• North Carolina - 41st. 

• Duke - 3rd. 

TV Info:

• Tonight’s game will tip at 6:30 PM on ESPN. 

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